Photo : Abc news
Photo : Abc news
By Rosemary Kurian
WAR ON THE GROUND
On 11 March, CNN reported that Russia is producing thrice the artillery shells compared to the US and Europe for Ukraine’s cause, projecting a potential second Russian offensive in Ukraine. NATO intelligence found that Russia is producing 250,000 artillery shells a month, with three million shells a year, as opposed to a mere 1.2 million ammunition produced by the US and Europe for Ukraine. The USD 60 million Ukraine aid at a stalemate in the US Congress too falls short of Russian production targets. A NATO official called the situation “a production war” as Russia is apparently running its factories “24/7”, while importing more from Iran and North Korea. However, NATO officials suggest that it wouldn’t lead to a Russian battlefield victory in the short term yet.
On 11 March, Reuters reported on the destruction of 15 out of 25 Russian Shahed drones by Ukraine during an overnight attack in the Ukrainian port of Odesa. Oleh Kiper, Odesa’s regional governor, stated that several Shahed drones coming from the Black Sea were repelled by the air defence system, but noted the damage of an administrative building, an infrastructure facility and few commercial buildings without reported casualties. Russian bombardment of Ukrainian ports has increased especially since it pulled out of the UN-brokered deal on allowing the flow of food exports, since Ukraine is a major grain producer having found alternative routes like Odesa via the Black Sea.
THE MOSCOW VIEW
Claims by Russia
On 11 March, TASS reported that the Russian Battlegroup Center attacked around 350 Ukrainian targets including “two command outposts, 14 strongholds and roughly 90 field artillery positions” near the Avdeyevka region along the line of engagement, according to Alexander Savchuk, Battlegroup spokesperson. Some 60 airstrikes were conducted near the settlements of Ocheretino, Berdychi and Novokalinovi in Donetsk. Further, five Ukrainian drones and a HIMARS rocket were destroyed by the Russian air defence forces.
On 10 March, TASS reported that Maria Zakharova, Russia’s Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman, stated that the NATO has “no point denying” any longer of its presence in Ukraine, after Radoslaw Sikorski, Poland’s Foreign Minister, spoke of the NATO presence during a conference commemorating 25 years of Poland’s NATO membership. Earlier, Emmanuel Macron, the French President, had held a conference in Paris considering sending ground troops to Ukraine, but which ended in participants showing no interest. Macron had expressed willingness to such a possibility, which was said to lead to a military conflict between NATO and Russia, according to Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin spokesperson.
On 11 March, TASS reported that ships from the Russian Pacific fleet arrived at the Chah Bahar port of Iran, led by the Varyag guard missile cruiser, as part of joint naval exercise ‘Maritime Security Belt- 2024.’ Navy representatives from Pakistan, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Oman, India and South Africa will act as observers. The Russian Marshal Shaposhnikov frigate, warships and a supply ship from the Chinese Navy, at least 10 ships, support vessels and three helicopters from the Iranian Navy too will be part of the drills, according to the ministry.
THE WEST VIEW
Responses from the US and Europe
On 11 March, Ulf Kristersson, the Swedish Prime Minister, made a speech at the ceremony commemorating Sweden’s accession into NATO, marking Sweden’s historic decision to step out of non-alignment. The event at Brussels was joined by Swedish Crown Princess Victoria, cabinet ministers, the Commander-in-chief, and sic national party leaders. Sweden was prompted to join NATO after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, thereby threatening its security at the crossroads of northern Europe. Kristersson stated that Sweden will add to NATO’s ability and vice versa, as it already meets the NATO standard of allocating 2 per cent of its GDP to defence spending. The Swedish flag was hoisted in Brussels to join 31 other Allies. Jens Stoltenberg, the NATO Secretary General, welcomed Sweden, stating that “joining NATO is good for Sweden, good for stability in the North, and good for the security of our whole Alliance.”
On 11 March, Josep Borrell, the EU’s High Representative for Foreign and Security Policy was tasked to boost Europe’s defence and industrial bases in view of Russia’s aggression in Ukraine as a matter of great urgency. Borrell noted that after two years of war, the stocks are depleting and the “war of stocks” has become a “war of production.” An immediate action is to task an increase in ammunition production. A lack of investment and capital in the defence industries is potentially slowing it down, leading to import of equipment. Borrell urged the fragmented European defence industry to cooperate and enable joint procurement for a common European interest, and boost industries through increased financing and offering incentives. He stressed on long-term defence partnerships with Ukraine and the need to make Europe “defence ready.”
On 11 March, Kyiv Independent reported on the upcoming meeting between Fumio Kushida, the Japanese Prime Minister, and Joe Biden, the US President, on 10 April, to “strengthen the joint production system” for defence equipment to aid Ukraine. The US is unable to produce enough artillery shells and air defence systems for Ukraine, and Japan, after revising its law that allows certain weapon transfers, which is helping restore American supplies. Japan had stated in December that it would send Patriot surface-to-air missiles to the US, taking a policy shift from its earlier pacifist stance against arms exports. The change is not just to aid Ukraine, but also to prepare for any potential of Chinese aggression in the future. Japan has contributed USD eight billion in humanitarian aid and assistance to Ukraine, but its Constitution prevents the shipment of lethal military equipment.
On 11 March, Viktor Gulevich, the chief of the general staff of the Belarusian Armed Forces stated that Belarus was preparing for “maintaining a high level of combat and mobilisation readiness” in view of the political climate aggravated by Russian invasion in Ukraine. An inspection to monitor the same is being carried out in response to NATO preparations across Europe. The designated units of the Belarusian armed forces are set to conduct a series of exercises replicating the NATO exercises, which it plans on intensifying in the future. Currently, the Dragon 24 exercises led by Poland are underway within the NATO Steadfast Defender military drills, known to be the largest in Europe in several decades.
On 11 March, The Guardian reported that Copper International, a crypto currency firm, transferred more than USD 4.2 million worth of digital assets to the crypto wallet of Jonatan Zimenkov, part of an alleged Russian arms-dealing network. Zimenkov was imposed with sanctions by the US in February for alleged assistance to Russian invasion of Ukraine, as part of the "Zimenkov network" which is an arms dealing and sanctions evading network. While there are no suggestions that Copper International breached any regulations, the event highlights the opaqueness of crypto currency and the anonymity it offers.
References
Katie Bo Lillis, Natasha Bertrand, Oren Liebermann and Haley Britzky, “Exclusive: Russia producing three times more artillery shells than US and Europe for Ukraine”, CNN, 11 March 2024
“Ukraine downs 15 of 25 Russian drones targeting Odesa, infrastructure hit”, Reuters, 11 March 2024
"Russian Navy ships arrive in Iran for drills — top brass”, TASS, 11 March 2024
“Russian diplomat calls on NATO to stop denying presence of its military in Ukraine”, TASS, 11 March 2024
“Russian forces hit some 350 Ukrainian targets in Avdeyevka direction”, TASS, 11 March 2024
Josep Borrell, “Time to strengthen European defence industry”, EUEA, 11 March 2024
“Speech by Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson at ceremony in Brussels to mark Sweden joining NATO”, Government Offices of Sweden, 11 March 2024
“Swedish flag raised at NATO Headquarters”, NATO, 11 March 2024
Abbey Fenbert, “US, Japan hope to accelerate joint defense production at April summit”. The Kyiv Independent, 11 March 2024
Rob Davies and Matei Rosca, “Crypto firm moved $4.2m of assets to digital wallet linked to alleged Russian arms dealer”, The Guardian, 11 March 2024